Baseline · professional tennis
The tennis edges soft books haven't priced yet —
proven against the closing line.
A calibrated model prices every ATP match. Pinnacle's closing line is the benchmark every pick is graded against — and the board flags the recreational books that disagree with the vig-free close by a validated 5–12%.
Forward CLV
First forward picks are grading now — the forward record started 2026-07-10.
vs the Pinnacle close, every forward pick
Picks graded
30
all-time, backfill and forward eras split on the ledger
Calibration
We said 67.5%, it happened 62.8% — checked monthly across 1,234 settled ATP predictions, misses shown.
Graded against the sharpest line in tennis — see the ledger.
Today's free featured match
Clay · 2026-07-13 12:45 UTC
No other line qualifies today — the filter only fires on a validated 5–12% disagreement, and we say so rather than stretch.
Built by a lifelong competitive tennis player with a Princeton econometrics background, now working in quantitative finance in New York — the model he wished existed, with the whole record where you can check it.
Baseline Premium
The full daily Edge Board — every covered match, every book we track, and the written read behind each flagged row.
The standard we grade against
Every pick is graded against Pinnacle's closing line — the sharpest price in tennis. We don't claim to beat it; nothing reliably does. What we've validated is narrower and more useful: recreational books drift from that line, and our filter catches the drift. Every pick we post is settled at the posted odds and published, wins and losses alike. Hold us to it.
The ledger — every graded pick · The receipts — including what we got wrong
Loading the record…
The record